🔥 Victorian Bushfires Comparison
2009 - 2019 - 2026
⚠️ 2026 Fires - ONGOING EMERGENCY
📅 Page Last Updated: January 11, 2026State of Disaster declared: January 10, 2026 (first since 2020)
Statistics below are interim figures as of January 11, 2026 and will change as the situation develops.
For current warnings and live fire maps:
⚠️ Understanding Bushfire Severity: What Most People Don't Realise
Bushfires can transform from a distant smoke plume to a life-threatening emergency in minutes. Wind changes redirect fire fronts without warning, flames travel faster than people can run (25+ km/h in grassland), and burning embers can spark new fires 10-35 kilometres ahead of the main blaze. Many underestimate grass fires—they move faster than forest fires, generate flame heights exceeding 10 metres, and produce radiant heat so intense it can kill from hundreds of metres away, ignite homes before flames arrive, and shatter windows from thermal shock alone. Temperatures near a fire front exceed 1,000°C; exposure of just seconds can be fatal.
Those inexperienced with bushfires often misjudge distance and time. A fire visible on the horizon 50 kilometres away—what might seem like a comfortable 30-minute drive—can be at your doorstep in minutes. Not from the main fire front travelling towards you, but from wind-blown embers landing 10-35 kilometres ahead, igniting spot fires that rapidly merge and surround you before you've even registered the threat. By the time you smell smoke or see flames nearby, escape routes may already be cut, roads gridlocked with panicked traffic, and visibility reduced to near zero.
The psychological impact is equally severe. Survivors describe skies turning black at midday, the deafening roar of approaching fire, and making life-or-death decisions in zero visibility. Post-traumatic stress, anxiety, depression, and survivor guilt persist for years—trauma that is preventable. Every major bushfire inquiry delivers the same conclusion: if you are not fully prepared to defend a well-equipped property, leave early. This means the night before or at first light on high-risk days—not when you see flames or smell smoke. Roads become gridlocked, escape routes close without warning, and panic kills. No home is worth your life, and no one should carry the mental scars of an evacuation that came too late.
🎒 Preparation Essentials Often Overlooked
Identity documents are critical. If your home and possessions are completely destroyed, you'll need identification to access emergency services, apply for grants, make insurance claims, secure temporary accommodation, and receive financial assistance. Without ID, these processes can take weeks of unnecessary delays during your most vulnerable time. Prepare certified copies or store originals safely.
- Emergency go-bag: Passports, birth certificates, licenses, Medicare cards, insurance policies, property deeds, and essential medical records
- Protective clothing: Long pants, long-sleeved shirts, sturdy boots, woollen blankets (natural fibres don't melt like synthetics)—in case you're caught near a fire front
- Overnight essentials: Medications, phone chargers, cash, water, and a change of clothes
- Fireproof storage: Even a small fireproof safe or document box can protect irreplaceable items. For those in high-risk areas, consider a larger fire-rated storage solution or approved bushfire bunker as a last-resort refuge if evacuation is no longer possible
Preparation done now, during calm conditions, removes the panic of last-minute decisions and gives you the best chance of protecting both your life and your ability to recover.
| Metric | Black Saturday 2009 | Black Summer 2019-20 | January 2026 (Ongoing) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area Burnt (Hectares) | ~450,000 ha (1.1 million acres) |
~1.5 million ha (3.7 million acres) |
~300,000+ ha (741,000 acres) ONGOING |
| Lives Lost | 173 (deadliest in Australian history) |
5 (Victoria) 33 (nationally) |
0 confirmed fire deaths* (1 unrelated death nearby) |
| Structures Destroyed | ~3,500 buildings (incl. 2,000+ houses) |
~400-420 houses + other structures |
130+ structures ONGOING |
| Duration | Single catastrophic day (Feb 7) + weeks of burning |
~90 days (Nov 2019 - Feb 2020) |
Started early Jan 2026 ONGOING |
| State of Disaster/Emergency | No (mechanism didn't exist) | Yes - Jan 2, 2020 | Yes - Jan 10, 2026 |
🔥 Black Saturday Bushfires — February 7, 2009
The deadliest bushfire disaster in Australian history
Key Statistics
- 3,500+ buildings destroyed (including 2,029 houses)
- 78+ communities directly affected
- ~1 million wild and domesticated animals killed (RSPCA estimate)
- $4.4 billion in damages (excluding agricultural losses)
- 19,000+ firefighters deployed
Ignition Causes
| Cause | Details |
|---|---|
| Powerline Failure | Kilmore East fire (deadliest individual fire - 119 deaths) caused by fallen power lines in high winds |
| Arson/Deliberately Lit | Churchill fire - convicted arsonist (10 deaths) Bendigo fire - suspected deliberate |
| Accidental | Various ignitions from power tools, electrical equipment |
| Fire Behaviour | Fires created their own weather, spotting up to 35km ahead of fire front |
Weather Conditions
- Temperatures: 46-47°C in fire-affected areas
- Wind gusts: 100+ km/h, with sudden direction changes
- Humidity: Below 10%
- Preceded by 3 days above 43°C in Melbourne (record heatwave)
- Millennium Drought - lowest 12-year rainfall on record
🔥 Black Summer Bushfires — 2019-2020 (Victorian Component)
Part of Australia's largest national bushfire disaster
Key Statistics
- 1.39 million hectares of forests and parks burned
- 6,632+ head of livestock lost
- 8,200+ CFA staff and volunteers deployed
- Mallacoota: 4,000 people trapped, 123 houses destroyed
- Estimated 244 species lost more than 50% of their habitat
Ignition Causes
| Cause | Percentage (2019-20 analysis) |
|---|---|
| Lightning | ~82% (predominantly dry lightning storms) |
| Accidents | ~14% |
| Arson | ~4% |
| Escaped Burn-offs | ~1% |
Note: Percentages based on satellite data analysis by ACEMS researchers
Major Fire Complexes (Victoria)
- East Gippsland fires: Mallacoota, Buchan, Cann River
- Upper Murray/Walwa fire: Crossed from NSW, threatened Corryong
- Budj Bim National Park: Threatened World Heritage Aboriginal sites
🔥 January 2026 Victorian Bushfires ONGOING
Described as "worst fire danger since Black Summer"
*One man found dead near Ravenswood, but death not currently believed related to fires. Three missing persons found safe.
Current Statistics (as of Jan 11, 2026)
- State of Disaster declared Jan 10, 2026 (first since 2020)
- 18 local government areas + Lake Mountain Alpine Resort affected
- 67+ fires burning at peak, 10+ uncontrolled
- Longwood fire alone: 84,000+ hectares
- Mount Lawson/Walwa fire: 19,000+ hectares
- Ravenswood/Harcourt fire: ~50 structures destroyed
Major Fire Locations
- Longwood/Ruffy: 130km NE of Melbourne - most destruction, including town school
- Mount Lawson/Walwa: NSW border - generating pyrocumulonimbus clouds
- Ravenswood/Harcourt: Near Bendigo - 50+ structures lost
- Carlisle River/Great Otway: Threatening Great Ocean Road
Suspected Ignition Causes
| Cause | Status |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Suspected cause of many fires; dry lightning from cold front on Jan 9 |
| Under Investigation | Emergency Management Commissioner states causes remain unclear; investigators will examine each fire site |
Weather Conditions
- Temperatures: 46-47°C in inland areas
- Wind gusts: Up to 100 km/h
- Very low humidity
- Catastrophic fire danger rating - first since Black Summer
- Hot, dry conditions expected to persist through Jan 11-13
| Cause Category | Black Saturday 2009 | Black Summer 2019-20 | January 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Minor contributor; fires created own lightning during event | ~82% - Primary cause | Suspected primary cause (under investigation) |
| Powerline/Infrastructure | Major cause - Kilmore East (deadliest fire) | Not a major factor | Under investigation |
| Arson/Deliberate | Churchill fire (10 deaths) - convicted | ~4% | Under investigation |
| Accidents | Some fires (power tools, equipment) | ~14% | Under investigation |
| Escaped Burn-offs | Some fires | ~1% | No reports |
Historical context: Victorian DELWP data (2000-2019) shows overall cause breakdown as: Lightning 41%, Accidents 34%, Arson 17%, Escaped burn-offs 7%. The 2019-20 season had unusually high lightning-caused fires due to dry thunderstorm activity.
Comparative Fire Map
The map below shows the approximate locations and relative scale of the three major fire events across Victoria. Note that fire extents are represented schematically for comparison—refer to official maps for precise boundaries.
Key Geographic Observations
- 2009 Black Saturday: Concentrated in central Victoria, particularly the ranges north-east of Melbourne (Kinglake, Marysville) with separate fires near Beechworth, Churchill, and Bendigo
- 2019-20 Black Summer: Predominantly in eastern Victoria - East Gippsland and Alpine regions, with fires extending to the NSW border
- 2026 January: Multiple fronts across northern and central Victoria (Longwood, Bendigo area) plus coastal fires in the Otways, with border fires near Walwa
| Event | Primary Affected Regions |
|---|---|
| Black Saturday 2009 |
|
| Black Summer 2019-20 |
|
| January 2026 |
|
Forest Fire Management Victoria provides detailed official maps of past bushfire events:
Black Saturday 2009
- Statewide Overview Map (PDF, 1.0 MB)
- Kilmore East-Murrindindi Fire (PDF)
- Beechworth Fire (PDF)
- South East Victorian Fires (PDF)
Black Summer 2019-20
- Victorian Fires 2019-2020 Statewide Map (PDF, 3.0 MB)
- Hume Fires - Upper Murray/Walwa (PDF, 1.9 MB)
- Gippsland Fires - Tambo & Snowy (PDF, 1.8 MB)
All Historical Maps
📁 Complete Past Bushfire Maps Archive (FFM Victoria)📊 Fire History Data (GIS)
For researchers and detailed analysis:
📈 Victorian Fire History Dataset (1903-present)This GIS dataset contains spatial fire extent data for all recorded fires since 1903, including severity data from 2006 onwards. Requires GIS software to view.
Comparing the Three Events
Scale
- Black Summer (2019-20) burned the largest area in Victoria (~1.5M ha)
- Black Saturday (2009) burned ~450,000 ha but with catastrophic intensity
- 2026 fires have burned ~300,000 ha so far and are ongoing
Human Toll
- Black Saturday remains Australia's deadliest bushfire with 173 deaths
- Black Summer's improved warnings and evacuation protocols contributed to lower fatalities (5 in Victoria)
- 2026 has no confirmed fire-related deaths so far, despite significant property losses
Primary Causes
- Black Saturday: Infrastructure failure (powerlines) and arson
- Black Summer: Overwhelmingly lightning-caused (~82%)
- 2026: Suspected lightning from dry thunderstorms; investigations ongoing
Emergency Response Evolution
- Post-Black Saturday: Major reforms from Royal Commission (67 recommendations)
- Creation of "Catastrophic" (Code Red) fire danger rating
- Enhanced warning systems and "leave early" messaging
- State of Disaster provisions more readily invoked
- VicEmergency - emergency.vic.gov.au
- Country Fire Authority (CFA) - cfa.vic.gov.au
- Forest Fire Management Victoria - ffm.vic.gov.au
- Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub - knowledge.aidr.org.au
- 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission Final Report
- Bureau of Meteorology - bom.gov.au
- The Conversation, SBS News, and other news sources (January 2026)
- ACEMS/The Conversation bushfire cause analysis (2020)